Five tech giants have borrowed $253 billion from bond investors this year, as much as in the previous six years put together. That is three quarters of what the British government borrows in a whole year.
Money raised by selling bonds (IOUs that investors buy and are repaid later, with interest) by Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta (Facebook) and Oracle, by year. 2026 is January to October. Loans and share sales are left out.
- Building for AI is eating their cash. Over the past year, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta spent 91 cents of every dollar their businesses brought in on data centres, chips and equipment. In 2015 it was 29 cents.
- So the cash pile is going. At the end of 2021 the four had $290bn more in cash than they owed. Now it is $101bn. Amazon and Oracle are already spending more than their businesses bring in, so the rest has to be borrowed.
- Lenders are being asked to wait, and they are charging more. Alphabet has sold a bond that is repaid in 2126, a hundred years from now. The extra interest investors demand from these companies has risen this year, while for other big firms it has barely moved.
Until now AI was paid for out of profits, so if it disappointed, only shareholders lost. Now more of it is paid for with debt, and the interest is due whether AI pays off or not. If it pays off, the debt is easily repaid. If it disappoints, the losses spread to the pension funds and insurers that bought the bonds. That is how a stock market slump turns into a debt problem.