MacroSnaps11 July 2026
No. 06The US is running a crisis-sized budget deficit, with no crisis.
US federal budget deficit versus the euro area (all levels of government), 2000 to 2026. Percent of GDP. Below zero is a surplus.
Why this is happening
- Both parties have raised spending and cut taxes, and neither will touch the big programmes that drive the gap.
- Rising interest on the debt now piles on top of the regular shortfall.
- Because the world keeps buying Treasuries, there is no market pressure forcing a fix, so the deficit just runs.
The take
Deficits this size used to be the emergency lever. Now they are the baseline, which means there is nothing held in reserve for when a real emergency arrives.
Source: CBO, OMB (2026)