MacroSnaps15 July 2026
No. 10Over 200 years, a dollar in stocks became millions; in gold it barely held its value.
Real value of $1 invested in 1802, after inflation, in US stocks versus gold.
Why this is happening
- Stocks pay out the profits of growing companies and reinvest the rest, so each year of earnings compounds on the last across two centuries.
- Gold pays nothing; it only roughly tracks the price level, so it preserves value but cannot compound.
- Tiny differences in annual return become enormous gaps once they run for 200 years.
The take
The equity risk premium compounding over a lifetime is the whole game. Safety that earns nothing is its own kind of loss once you stretch the clock out far enough.
Source: Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run